Asia Breakfast Briefing-September 27 2016

(记录 分享 博亿堂娱乐)的点点滴滴


  • US Aug new home sales -7.6% m/m at 609K rate vs 659K in July, median f/cast at 600K

  • Sept Dallas Fed mfg current biz index -3.7% as weaker lead new orders offsets output rise

  • Dallas Fed chief Kaplan repeats patience on raising rates as economy not overheating

  • Richmond Fed chief Lacker sees strong case to hike rates amid full employment economy

  • German Sept Ifo biz climate index rose to 109.5 from 106.3,beating unchanged forecast

  • ECB”s Coeure sees long time still before even thinking about exiting monetary policy stimulus

  • Nov WTI oil +3.3% to $45.93 with informal OPEC meeting eyed for action to curb supply glut

  • ASIA PREVIEW

    BOJ minutes for the 28-29 Jul meeting are due at 23.50GMT. Note this was when they disappointed the markets by delivering the bare minimum of doubling ETF purchases and announcing the comprehensive policy review in Sep. Little impact is expected given it”s been superseded by last wk”s QQE tweaks, which in our eyes have given rise to tapering/tightening concerns and reinforced our viewpoint that the BOJ is running up against the limits of monetary policy. Japan”s Aug SPPI is f/c to come in at 0.3% y/y vs 0.4% y/y prev but should also be shrugged off.

    Beyond this, China”s Aug industrial profits will also be on tap but broadly speaking, the main focus is on risk sentiment setting interim trade cues.

    North American data calendars were sparse Mon. In the US, Aug new home sales did not fall as much as expected after a Jul surge as they were down -7.6% when -8.6% had been expected and Jul was revised up to +13.8% from +12.4%. The Sep Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index strengthened further in Sep with production rising 12 pts to 16.7. The only Canadian data release was the fifth consecutive fall in the weekly Bloomberg-Nanos Consumer Confidence Index. Non-voting Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan said he would have been comfortable lifting rates in Sep. Fed Gov Tarullo said the Fed will seek more capital from the largest banks based on market loss under stress as stress tests will be merged with capital rules. BOC Gov Poloz will be giving a lecture overnight on “Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy” in Bellingham, WA. There was a decent 2-yr Treasury note auction.

    Data calendars will remain second-tier on Tues. The US will see the Sep Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index which is seen falling to 99.0 from 101.1 along with the Jul Case-Shiller Home Price Index which is seen at 0.0% m/m after -0.1%. The Sep Markit Services PMI and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index are also due with the former seen rising to 51.2 from 51.0 and the latter moving from -11 to -2. There will be a 5-yr Treasury note auction. Fed VC Fischer will be speaking.

    OVERNIGHT SESSION WRAPS

    US FX CLOSE

    EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDAUD/USDUSD/CADDOWUS 10-YROPEN1.1243100.401.29200.76201.3190CLOSED99-02HIGH1.1279100.561.29860.76491.3239-166.6299-10LOW1.1242100.251.29210.76191.3137@98-29CLOSE1.1257100.271.29730.76361.323918,094.8399-065

    The Usd index (DXY) vs six majors slipped -0.2% to close at 95.30, leaving it below its 50 and 200day ma lines. Flows were fairly modest as many prefer sidelines in limited US data slate ahead of tonight”s first Presidential debate between Clinton and Trump. US data reports today were weak per Aug new home sales down -7.6% m/m while Sept Dallas Fed mfg current biz index stayed negative as lower new orders offset higher output. Among majors, Eur/Usd rose +0.27%, helped in part by latest German Ifo biz sentiment unexpectedly rising in Sept to 109.5 from 106.3 in Aug. Usd/Yen as 2nd largest index weight ended down -0.7% at session lows with UST yields falling on more US stock losses, partly tied to US election jitters as polls show tighter race for the White House. That risk-off sentiment trumped higher oil prices for Cad$ which fell -0.4% vs the Usd.

    US TREASURY CLOSE

    10-YEARDec TENDec BONDDec S&PNov OIL2/105/303/10/30HIGH99-10131-14+168-242158.7046.20n/an/an/aLOW98-29131-00167-212137.7044.43n/an/an/aLAST99-06+131-10168-082139.5045.6784.7119.9-1.4CHANGE+9/32+9/32+14/32-18.60+1.19-1.7+0.4-0.8

    TREASURIES CLOSE 3:00PM – Price action was firm today with the main catalyst being weaker equities and new concerns about the health of DB. Light screen volume and real money flows were exhibited in the lower bidder rates at today”s 2yr raffle. However, this was not a duration needed maturity. Many participants appeared to hit the sidelines ahead of tonight”s political event and its potential to impact prices. The curve basis 5/30yr finished around 119.9 but activity was on the light side as well. Some techs note that both USZ short term studies and daily chart are in positive modes, but overbought territory is not far away from current levels. We find it difficult to handicap price reaction to the debate and view it as a possible kneejerk event, with short lasting influence. JK

    DAY AHEAD

    GMTCODENAMEPERIODCONSENSUSPREVIOUS0:00RUGross Domestic Product Monthly (YoY)Aug-0.60%0:00USOPEC meeting6:00DEImport Price Index (YoY)Aug-3.80%6:00DEImport Price Index (MoM)Aug0.10%7:00HUUnemployment Rate (3M)Aug5%7:00FIIndustrial ConfidenceSep-107:00FIConsumer ConfidenceSep15.77:30SEProducer Price Index (MoM)Aug-0.30%7:30SEProducer Price Index (YoY)Aug-1.10%7:30SERetail Sales (YoY)Aug1.10%7:30SERetail Sales (MoM)Aug-0.90%7:30SETrade Balance (MoM)Aug0.58:00EMUPrivate loans (YoY)Aug1.80%8:00EMUM3 Money Supply (3m)Aug4.90%8:00EMUM3 Money Supply (YoY)Aug4.90%4.80%8:00ITIndustrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)Jul-4.20%8:00ITIndustrial Orders s.a (MoM)Jul-2.80%8:00ITIndustrial Sales s.a. (MoM)Jul-1.10%8:00ITIndustrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)Jul-2.70%10:00GBCBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized (MoM)Sep912:30SKCurrent Account Balance EURJun€118€12:55USRedbook index (YoY)9/23/20160.20%12:55USRedbook index (MoM)9/23/2016-0.50%13:00USS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)Jul5.10%5.10%13:00MXTrade Balance s/a, $Aug$-1.827$13:00MXTrade Balance, $Aug$-1.827$13:45USMarkit Services PMISep5113:45USMarkit PMI CompositeSep51.514:00USConsumer ConfidenceSep99.8101.114:00USRichmond Fed Manufacturing IndexSep-1115:30US4-Week Bill Auction0.18%19:00ARMonthly Econ Activity (MoM)Jul-4.30%19:00ARTrade Balance (MoM)Aug$270$20:30USAPI Weekly Crude Oil Stocks-7.49Destinations:

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